Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , July 6

Wednesday's monsoon depression weakened rapidly overnight into a well-marked "low" and moved North-Northwest later to settle down as a feeble "low" over south Rajasthan on Thursday.

This brought the ongoing wet session progressively to an end along the west coast as well as adjoining Northwest India. Indications are that the monsoon may now be entering another weak phase.

Short on confidence

Forecasters are not able to repose confidence in the outlook for a second monsoon `low' materialising in the Bay of Bengal basin.

This is despite the fact that wind speeds continue to hold, as depicted in the high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology said the spending-out Bay system used up so much energy in the atmosphere that it would be some time before the same could be recouped in order to host another monsoon system.

Rare phenomenon

Wind speeds are seen as sustaining at least for the next five days. In a rare phenomenon, the westerly flows from the Arabian Sea are predicted to blow right into Central India and even beyond to set up a confluence with a smattering of monsoon easterlies over Uttar Pradesh.

At least four international models have consistently been making this forecast over the past few days.

This is expected to trigger showers for a three-day period from July 9 over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, and parts of Northwest India, including north-east Rajasthan. Delhi will also be benefited, Dr Gupta said.

According to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), model predictions suggest that the ongoing rainfall activity over the peninsula and Central India is set to decline. Activity over Maharashtra and Gujarat will reduce substantially.

However, Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh may continue to witness sporadic showers during the next 24 hours.

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