Date:04/08/2006 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2006/08/04/stories/2006080406211200.htm

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

War clouds darken the outlook for peace

B. Muralidhar Reddy

Sri Lanka appears headed for civil war, with the LTTE stepping up its attacks. The peace constituency has suffered a further blow with three European nations pulling out of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission.

THE DECLARATION by Finland, Denmark, and Sweden that they are pulling out of the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), before the September 1 deadline set by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, is yet another blow to the tottering peace process in the island nation. As it is, the 2002 Norway-brokered Ceasefire Agreement between the Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE has been reduced to a mere piece of paper by the assassinations, bomb blasts, and now pitched battles.

What began with the killing of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar in August 2005 is now a tide pushing Sri Lanka towards another war. What began as a "water war on humanitarian grounds" last week has already claimed over 120 lives in the bloodiest battles between the Sri Lankan military and the LTTE since the 2002 ceasefire.

The LTTE even targeted the main naval base in Trincomalee and a passenger ship carrying 800-odd naval ratings barely managed to escape. The battle has engulfed new areas in the east. On Thursday morning, there were unconfirmed reports of the LTTE overrunning Muttur town.

The future of the SLMM hangs in the balance at a time when ceasefire violations have become the norm. In a candid interaction with foreign correspondents based in Colombo, the SLMM conceded it was just not equipped to deal with the fast deteriorating situation and unless the trend was reversed, the mission members might as well pack their bags and leave. Predictably, the Sri Lankan Government is livid with the decision of the SLMM's European Union member countries to quit. Colombo has indirectly charged them with aiding terrorists. The three countries had little option after the LTTE rebuffed several conciliatory efforts and refused to accept any role for the EU. The LTTE stand is that their presence in the mission has become untenable after the EU ban on the Tigers in May.

At its recent meeting with the Swedish Ambassador-at-Large, Anders Olijelund, not only did the LTTE refuse to relent vis-à-vis the monitors but also raised serious objections to the initiatives of Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse for a political solution to the ethnic conflict. Therefore, EU ban or no ban, the LTTE appears to be itching for yet another battle.

Consequently, the question is what is the preparedness and resolve of the Sri Lanka polity to face the situation. The signs are not encouraging. Every section that ought to be worried over the gathering war clouds is acting like an island in itself. Everyone seems consumed by his or her own agenda. The much needed consensus on crucial issues is elusive.

On the face of it, President Rajapakse has embarked on a laudable and ambitious mission to work towards a national consensus, or to be more precise a southern coming together, on the touchy subject of power sharing with the Tamils and other minorities. He constituted an all parties representative conference to hammer out a solution and followed it up with the naming of a multi-ethnic committee of experts to advise him on the way forward.

The moves should have gone a long way in sending a clear message on the determination of the ruling combine and the polity to find a solution to the ethnic conflict and should have begun the process of isolating the LTTE. Unfortunately, some of the actions of the ruling coalition threaten to undermine the endeavour. Dealing with the main opposition group in Parliament, the United National Party (UNP), is a case in point.

Even under normal circumstances, the arch rivals — the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the UNP — have difficulty in working together. The way the SLFP is poaching UNP Members of Parliament does not make for an atmosphere conducive to cooperation. Even as the military and LTTE were engaged in an intense battle in the east, on Wednesday President Rajapakse inducted a sixth UNP rebel into the Government.

Lionel Premasiri is the latest entrant to the 91-strong Council of Ministers in a house of 225. The count of Ministers in the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) Government may not stop there as several others in UNP are reportedly waiting in the wings to cross over. Mr. Rajapakse has also made an open offer to all four other partners of the UPFA to become part of the Government.

Besides, smaller parties such as the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) have been invited to join the Government. The CWC has accepted the invitation `in principle' and is waiting for Mr. Rajapakse to indicate the ministerial portfolio for its nominee. Only two MPs of the SLFP, which heads the UPFA, are not Ministers. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), with 22 members in Parliament, is a key component of the UPFA. Mr. Rajapakse has already asked the JVP to become part of the Government. A few days ago, the JVP leader, Somawanse Amarasinghe, announced that his party was working on a `common programme' to strengthen Mr. Rajapakse. The indications though are that Mr. Rajapakse would prefer to keep his distance from the ultra-nationalist party.

He continues the efforts to woo the disgruntled elements in the UNP despite warnings of adverse consequences. Political observers see the expansion spree of the Government as a `sad development' when the island nation is faced with an undeclared war. Says Jayadeva Uyangoda, Professor of Political Science at Colombo University: "The past Governments too indulged in such antics but Rajapakse has broken all records. Conceded that it is a problem of a minority government but would not augur well for consensus on crucial issues between main opposition party and the Government. It strengthens the opinion that the President is pursuing personal or not national agenda."

Bane of the nation

The rivalry between the SLFP and the UNP has been the bane of the island nation. Mr. Rajapakse can justify his forays on the UNP Parliamentary Party as a response to the desire of the opposition MPs to shift camps. But the moot question is: will it help carry forward his Herculean task of building a national consensus on issues that have divided the country for nearly six decades?

There are not many takers for the argument that the President is merely consolidating his base. For a variety of reasons, the UNP today is a divided house and faced with a plethora of problems. There is absolutely no need for the ruling combine to be dipping into the UNP Parliamentary group as the party is hardly in a position to pose a threat or challenge, unless the idea is to settle old scores.

It is significant that within days of Mr. Rajapakse presiding over the first combined meeting of the all parties representative conference and the multi-ethnic experts committee, the JVP moved the Supreme Court challenging the legality of the 1988 temporary merger of the northern and eastern provinces. The merger was the outcome of the 1987 India-Sri Lanka Accord and seen by most as a crucial confidence building measure in redressing the grievances of the Tamils. An overwhelming majority of political observers in Sri Lanka believes that any move to de-merge the north and the east now will only help the LTTE. The JVP vehemently opposed the merger right from the beginning. And, the ultra-nationalist party has roped in none other than the legal counsel to the President to fight its case, clouding the political initiatives of Mr. Rajapakse. H.L. de Silva, besides being the presidential legal counsel, also heads the multi-ethnic experts committee to advise Mr. Rajapakse on the resolution of the ethnic conflict. There are questions whether it was right on Mr. Silva's part to associate himself with a petition on a sensitive subject like merger of the north and the east.

The international community, India in particular, has been an ardent advocate of revival of the political dialogue on the ethnic issue at the earliest to pave the way for isolation of the LTTE. And everyone within and outside Sri Lanka is agreed that an earnest effort towards a political process cannot commence without harmony and understanding between the SLFP and the UNP.

All peace-loving constituencies are of the view that the need of the hour is for the ruling combine and the opposition to close ranks and demonstrate that they are ready to work on a solution that satisfies all reasonable sections, defeating the designs of the LTTE.