Opinion - News Analysis

Obama the next U.S. President?

Ed Pilkington

The mass hysteria surrounding Barack Obama has not been seen in Democratic circles since the early days of Bill Clinton.

WHEN NEW Hampshire Governor John Lynch introduced his guest of honour at a rally to celebrate the State's Democratic routing of the Republicans in the recent mid-term elections, he shared with the large, boisterous crowd a secret. "We originally scheduled the Rolling Stones," he said, "but we cancelled them when we realised Senator Obama would sell more tickets."

He was rewarded with an outbreak of ecstatic whooping. But behind his joke there was a truth. Barack Obama had indeed sold the tickets — the ballroom of the Radisson hotel in Manchester was packed, its 1,500 tickets sold out.

Observers stunned

Even seasoned observers of New Hampshire politics were rubbing their eyes in disbelief. The State is the stomping ground of would-be U.S. Presidents: every four years it is the first to hold primary elections for the presidential candidates of both main parties — 2008 will be no exception — and as such carries an influence far greater than its diminutive size.

John DiStaso, political columnist on New Hampshire's largest newspaper, the Union Leader, who has been covering the primaries since 1980, said he was astonished by such excitement so early in the electoral cycle. "I have never seen anything like it. I would think if Obama was looking for positive feedback about whether to stand, he's certainly found it here."

Mr. Obama's new book, the Audacity of Hope, is number two in the bestseller lists of both The New York Times and Amazon. His face beams out of the front covers of glossy magazines: he has been profiled by Time, Newsweek, Men's Vogue, Harper's, New York magazine. In each, the authors grapple with political mass hysteria, unseen in Democratic circles since the early days of Bill Clinton, perhaps, or even the adoration of the Kennedy brothers.

Mr. Obama himself appears to be remaining impressively calm in the face of such billowing adulation. Before his New Hampshire speech he told reporters: "I am suspicious of hype. The fact that my 15 minutes of fame has extended a little longer than 15 minutes is somewhat surprising to me, and a matter of bewilderment for my wife."

The comment is classic Obama — part self-deprecation, part dissembling. The question of will he or won't he stand for President has become the obsessive talking point for Democrats in New Hampshire and beyond, and he likes it that way. His official line is that he is weighing up his options — "running things through the traps" — but occasionally his language slips. At one point talking to reporters he compared himself to "the other candidates."

As for those other candidates, only two Democrats so far have clearly announced their intention of standing: Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack and Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana. Hillary Clinton, the natural frontrunner, is expected to make her declaration of intent early in the new year.

Yet it is in comparison with Ms. Clinton that both Mr. Obama's strengths and weaknesses become most apparent. His mother was white and from Kansas and his father was from Kenya and bequeathed his name to his son, but left the family to return home when Barack Jr was just two.

Mr. Obama plays heavily upon his racial and cultural origins in his books and speeches, endearing him to black and white audiences alike.

Then there is his age, at 45, which sets him apart from Ms. Clinton, 14 years his senior, and gives him claim — another parallel with JFK — to representing a new generation. It also gives him the latitude to reveal earlier youthful indiscretions: he confesses in his first book, Dreams from My Father, to having used marijuana (yes, he inhaled) and cocaine.

Race question

But questions of race and inexperience regularly arise. "Is America ready for a black President?" is hurled even more frequently at him than the question of a woman President is at Ms. Clinton. He faced it squarely on Sunday. "Race is still a powerful force in this country, and there are certain stereotypes I will have to deal with. But I find that when people get to know you they will judge you on your merits."

What most inflamed the crowd in New Hampshire was when he spoke about the American Dream. "What's hard, what demands courage, what's truly audacious, is to hope," he said. "People are hungry for something new. They are interested in being part of something larger than petty politics we have seen in the last few years. This is our time — a new generation that is preparing to lead."

- Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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