Date:13/12/2006 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2006/12/13/stories/2006121303811000.htm

Opinion - Editorials

Lebanon on edge

Hizbollah appears to have pushed Lebanon to the brink of either a fundamental political change or chaos with its campaign to oust the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. The militant Shia organisation is pressing for the formation of a cabinet of national unity that will supervise fresh elections. In a show of determination, Mr. Siniora and several Ministers have confined themselves to the government headquarters in Beirut for the past several days even as tens of thousands of opposition supporters laid siege to it. Hizbollah and its allies have warned that they might soon escalate their campaign by cutting roads and blocking airports and harbours. The opposition's short-term objective is to secure more than one-third share in an interim government so that it could have the power to veto decisions (in the Lebanese government system, two-thirds of the Ministers need to agree on any decision). Mr. Siniora has indicated that he is prepared to yield some ground but will not allow Hizbollah to stage a virtual coup. This confrontation is not likely to wind down soon since the two antagonistic groups are locked in a struggle that could determine the future of Lebanon's `confessional politics.' Traditionally, the high offices of state are allocated to the major sectarian and ethnic groups on the basis of their numbers as recorded in a census taken decades ago. While no estimates of Lebanon's population have been made in recent years, it is widely believed that the Shias make up the largest group. A community that was marginalised until Hizbollah built it up into a monolith is now demanding its due.

For the moment Hizbollah's powerful leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has not asked for a change in the constitutional scheme under which the President must be a Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni, and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia. His demand is that Shias be given a decisive say in the choice of premier. The Sunni, Christian, and Druze parties, which form the core of Mr. Siniora's coalition, are not likely to concede. These parties and the social groups they represent fear they will be marginalised in a Shia-dominated country if confessional politics comes to an end. The chances of the two antagonistic camps working out a solution without external intervention do not look bright. The United States, France, and Israel are supporting the Siniora government while Syria and Iran back Hizbollah. It is to be hoped that the dreadful memories shared by all communities of the 15-year civil war will prevent Lebanon from going over the edge.