Date:05/05/2007 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2007/05/05/stories/2007050507641000.htm

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

A Kremlin without Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Radyuhin

Despite mounting pressure to stay on, Mr. Putin insists he will step down as Russia's President at the end of his second term next year. But he has kept everyone guessing on who will succeed him.

DELIVERING HIS state-of-the-nation address last week, President Vladimir Putin officially confirmed that it was his last address and that Russia would have a new President next year. Mr. Putin has thus put an end to speculation that he might seek to amend the Constitution to stand in the March 2008 election. The Russian Constitution allows a President to serve two consecutive terms only. Mr. Putin's second term runs out next year, but the issue of whether he should be allowed to run again has been the subject of heated debate in the Russian body politic.

With the disastrous rule of Boris Yeltsin still fresh in people's memories, many feel it would be too dangerous to place the country in the hands of a less competent leader than Mr. Putin, as there are no presidential hopefuls of his calibre on the horizon. Succession in Russia, which is still in transit from the one-party Communist regime to democracy, is fraught with far bigger risks than in established democracies. Political parties are still weak and lack strong grass roots support, and the balance of power is heavily tilted towards the President. The country's catastrophic decline in the 1990s is largely blamed on Yeltsin, whose limited outlook aggravated the problems Russia faced after the break-up of the Soviet Union. By contrast, Mr. Putin's foresight, commitment, and hard work helped propel Russia's resurgence after 2000.

During Mr. Putin's presidency, the per capita GDP has increased tenfold, while people's real incomes have more than doubled. In the next two years, Russia may overtake Italy, France, and the United Kingdom to become the world's sixth largest economy. Many feel that another four-year term for Mr. Putin would be the best guarantee that the country surges ahead as it has over the past seven years.

Politicians and public figures have called for the Constitution to be amended to allow Mr. Putin to run again. More than 80 per cent of Russians want him to stay on, according to a recent poll. The Russian ruling elite is also concerned for its future under a new President. Every change of leader in the Kremlin has resulted in a thorough shake-up of the elite. Reflecting these apprehensions, Speaker of the Federation Council Sergei Mironov last month publicly came out in favour of another term for Mr. Putin and called on regional legislatures to take a stand on the issue.

What is more, foreign leaders, including some European ones, have also tried to persuade Mr. Putin to stay, as he revealed in an interview earlier this year. They "have told me in private discussions that Russia is not Europe (in terms of living standards, unfortunately, and from the point of view of the current stage of our development and the building of our modern statehood), and have suggested that during this transition period it would make sense for me to stay on as President of the Russian Federation," Mr. Putin said.

Despite all these appeals Mr. Putin has firmly insisted on abiding by the Constitution and stepping down next year. "I consider it crucially important to make democratic principles and institutions and respect for the law and the Constitution part of the practical life of our country," he said in a recent interview. "It is in this way that we can lay genuinely solid foundations for our country's stability."

If Mr. Putin does resign next spring it will be the first transfer of power in post-Soviet Russia strictly according to the Constitution. Even though Yeltsin also stepped down after two terms, he did so primarily because of ill health and six months before the end of his second term to give a head start to his picked successor, Mr. Putin.

Possible successors

While Mr. Putin has unequivocally stated his intention to quit, he has given no indication as to whom he might back to succeed him. Public attention has focussed on two possible successors — First Deputy Prime Ministers Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov. Both men have worked with Mr. Putin for a long time. Mr. Medvedev, 41, served as adviser to Mr. Putin when he was Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg in the mid-1990s, managed his presidential election campaign in 2000, and headed Mr. Putin's Kremlin administration in 2003-2005. Mr. Ivanov, 55, worked with Mr. Putin in the KBG in the 1980s, headed the Security Council in 1999-2001, and subsequently served as Defence Minister till February 2007, when he was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister.

Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Ivanov are considered top contenders because both are very close to Mr. Putin and are more influential than their boss, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov. However, it is not clear which of the two front-runners Mr. Putin may support, or whether at all he would be choosing between them. In fact, Mr. Putin last year suggested that a candidate could yet emerge from relative obscurity. He said the next President could be "someone who is not very well known ... not necessarily one of two people," — a reference presumably to Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Ivanov.

The elevation of Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Ivanov, Mr. Putin's two most trusted loyalists, may not necessarily be linked to the grooming of a successor, but is certainly part of the President's efforts to ensure that his policies are not reversed after he steps down in 2008. Mr. Medvedev has been put in charge of overall economic strategy and major national projects in the social sphere — public health, housing, and education, as well as agriculture. Mr. Ivanov oversees national security, including defence, high-end technologies, and infrastructure. Together they are the pillars of a power arrangement that should guarantee smooth succession, continuity, and stability.

Mr. Medvedev has the reputation of being a liberal and a champion of Russia's closer ties with the West, whereas Mr. Ivanov is largely regarded as a hawk in the West. By quietly promoting both Mr. Putin seems to be sending a message to the West: his choice may depend on whether the West opts for cooperation or confrontation with Russia. Recent U.S. plans to set up military bases and deploy a missile defence shield in Eastern Europe, perceived as a threat in Russia, appear to boost the presidential chances of Mr. Ivanov. Mr. Putin's hard-hitting criticism of U.S. policies in his keynote speech in Munich earlier this year signalled Russia's resolve to put greater emphasis on defence and security, which are Mr. Ivanov's responsibilities. A leading Moscow daily last week quoted Kremlin sources as asserting that Mr. Putin had made his choice: Mr. Ivanov will be President and Mr. Medvedev Prime Minister.

However, analysts think Mr. Putin will not take a decision until later this year. The Russian leader can afford to bide his time. Opinion polls show that given Mr. Putin's immense popularity a majority of voters will support the candidate who will have his blessing. Also, revealing his preferred choice almost a year before the presidential poll will make Mr. Putin a lame duck and expose the would-be successor to early attacks by rival power groups.

Mr. Putin is fully in control of the situation. The economy is growing at a comfortable 7 per cent a year, living standards are rising, the Opposition is weak and fragmented. Pro-Kremlin parties are expected to win a strong majority in the parliamentary election scheduled for December. Political and social stability in Russia leaves no chances for a pro-Western "orange revolution" of the type the U.S. orchestrated in Georgia and Ukraine.

Last, but not least, Mr. Putin has no intention to sink into oblivion after 2008. He said that relying on people's trust he hoped to "be able to exert influence on the life of our country and guarantee its development."

Indeed, Mr. Putin's final state-of-the-nation address last week did not look like a speech of a leader on the way out. Instead of summing up the results of his seven-year presidency Mr. Putin outlined an ambitious programme for the future. Pensions must rise by 65 per cent in the next three years and the pace of housing construction must more than double to relocate people from poor housing. By 2020 Russia will produce two-thirds more electricity, build 26 new nuclear power plants, and more hydro and coal-powered stations, overhaul and expand the transport infrastructure and prioritise high-tech industries.

It could be the speech of a future Prime Minister or a presidential contender in the 2012 election. All options are open to Mr. Putin as Russia is headed for the first transfer of power in its recent history that will be dogged by upheavals and attempts to negate the legacy of the outgoing leader.