Opinion - Editorials

Deceptive drop in violence

The February 1 double strike by women suicide bombers in Baghdad, which killed 98 people and wounded more than 120, underscores the reality that periods of calm in Iraq can be transitory, even deceptive. For nearly six months, the efforts of the United States to stem the violence by significantly increasing troop strength in the combat zone appeared to come off since bomb attacks did not occur with as much regularity as in the months before the “surge.” Not that the death toll during the post-surge months was low by any normal standard. According to a recent count cited by West Asia expert Juan Cole, the number of lives lost in bombings over this period was as follows: 167 in September 2007; 76 in November; 87 in December; and 100 in January 2008. The awful situation on the ground is not depicted by the rise in the graph alone. The groups instigating the attacks on civilians have apparently changed tactics. From driving explosives-laden vehicles into crowds, they have switched to suicide attacks by vest-wearing individuals. As the February attack demonstrated, these groups might increasingly rely on women bombers since they are less likely to be frisked than men. In truth, the U.S. policy has failed since the reconciliation between Iraq’s warring communities that the surge was supposed to facilitate has just not occurred.

President George Bush made a vain attempt to gild the picture in his recent State of the Union Address by focussing on two areas where progress has supposedly been made. While the Iraq’s Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds have worked out informal arrangements for sharing oil revenues, the flow of funds has been too slow and erratic for any substantial reconstruction work to be done. The other sign of ‘hope’ Mr. Bush spoke about — the relaxation of “de-Ba’athification” rules so as to allow enhanced recruitment of Sunnis into government service — is likely to prove ephemeral. Members of this community who believe that they are likely to lose rather than gain employment opportunities are trying to force the Presidency Council to kill this Act of Parliament. Trouble is also brewing on another front. The Kurds, who control the northern oil fields, have signed exploration and development contracts with foreign companies although the Constitution vests the central government with the authority to do so. This has so incensed the Shias and Sunnis that they could conceivably unite against an occupying force that is seen to be backing the Kurdish overreach.

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