Opinion - News Analysis

PPP banking on pro-Benazir wave

In the playground of a school in a small village called Jheeranwali in central Punjab, about a thousand people have collected to hear Chaudhary Ahmed Mukhtar, the Pakistan People’s Party candidate for the February 18 elections. As he walks up to the stage, Kalashnikov-wielding gunmen empty hundreds of rounds in the air to welcome him. The firing takes several minutes to die down, and the empties scatter over the stage like the rose petals the villagers showered on h im minutes before.

“This we have to do to drive away people’s fears,” says Mr. Mukhtar, “to tell our voters they must not be scared to come out on election day because like the other side, we also have guns to protect our supporters.”

Mr. Mukhtar’s party has fielded him in a parliamentary constituency in Gujrat, the Punjab fiefdom of Pakistan’s most powerful political family and virtually the “ground zero” of the election. He is pitted against the paterfamilias, former Prime Minister and president of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) Chaudhary Shujat Hussain, in a direct contest after the PML (Nawaz) candidate withdrew in his favour.

Mr. Hussain won the seat in 2002 by 14,000 votes, and was President Pervez Musharraf’s political right-hand. His party ran the Musharraf-led government until 2007. Cousin Pervez Elahi won a provincial assembly seat here and was Punjab Chief Minister until last November, when a caretaker government took over. Mr. Elahi is now the party’s prime ministerial candidate, while his son Moonis is fighting his father’s former assembly seat.

Mr. Hussain’s brother Wajahat won the neighbouring parliamentary seat in Gujrat. Election graffiti respectfully refers to him as “commander” and the PPP alleges that he runs a private army called “Wajahat Force” whose gunmen have been threatening its supporters. Youngest brother Shafat is an elected “nazim,” or the head of the local government from whom the district administration takes its orders. For his campaign, Chaudhary Shujat stepped into his constituency for the first time just 10 days before the elections.

But even though he is battling a powerful rival, the PPP candidate thinks of himself less as a sacrificial lamb and more as a David preparing to take on a Goliath, and his battle as one for sharafat (goodness).

“People admire me a lot, they respect me, because if not for me, there would have been no one to take on this family,” says Mr. Mukhtar, who owns one of Pakistan’s largest shoe companies. “People think I am as wealthy as Shujat, which is not true, and I also enjoy a good reputation here.” The shoe factory is a big employer in the town. He won the seat back in 1993, but he says Benazir was particular that he fight this battle, and was convinced he would succeed. “She said to me, ‘I know you are the only one who can defeat him,’” Mr. Mukhtar recalls. He is also contesting a provincial assembly seat in the constituency.

But in reality, it is after her assassination that his prospects have actually improved.

Countrywide, the PPP expects to ride a pro-Benazir sympathy wave in this election. People perceive the PML (Q) as responsible in some way for Benazir’s killing. Created by President Musharraf in 2002, the party grew powerful on his back. But a poll by the International Republican Institute, a U.S. Republican party outfit, shows his popularity has plunged to an all time low with 75 per cent saying they want him to resign immediately. Analysts see that rubbing off on the PML (Q).

While the effect of the wave will be most apparent in her home province of Sindh, PPP candidates in Punjab, the country’s biggest province, and the one that decides the winning party, are also expecting to benefit from this. Add to this the shock shortages of wheat, power and gas this winter, and the PML (Q) suddenly seems very much out of the race everywhere. Some nervous members have already gone scurrying back to the parent party — Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N).

All over Pakistan, the PPP and the PML (N) apprehend that the Q League will resort to large-scale irregularities to prevent outright defeat, and to emerge at least as the second-largest party if not the first so that it will stay in the game for government formation.

According to analysts, with Mr. Sharif’s unabated belligerence against General Musharraf and PML (Q), the regime’s primary focus is on minimising his influence in the post-election scenario. In particular, a PPP-PML(N) coalition will spell doom for General Musharraf.

Independent observers have expressed concerns that the PML (Q) has already used state machinery to carry out what it calls “pre-poll rigging,” and that the Election Commission has done nothing to stop it.

Complaints include faulty voters lists, “ghost” polling stations, harassment and intimidation of its candidates and workers by police, and in some places even arrests.

In Gujrat, Mr. Mukhtar alleges the Q camp has made elaborate plans to steal votes in a constituency where winning is a prestige issue for Mr. Hussain. The former Prime Minister is contesting from another seat in Sialkot, but this one is more important to him. The PPP candidate is convinced that while his prospects depend on the turnout on election day — the bigger the better — the rival camp is sure to employ tactics to scare voters away from the booths.

“If the contest is free and fair, there is absolutely no doubt that I will win,” he says. “After Benazir’s death, things have changed so much that our supporters have told us there is even no need to campaign, the votes will come by themselves, just be sure to protect your votes.”

As he drives through the constituency, women come out of their homes or stand in their doorways, showing the “V” sign. “Don’t forget Benazir,” he calls out to them, and they call back: “We won’t.” The pro-Benazir wave is most noticeable among women who identify with a mother who had to undergo intense suffering in her life on account of the violent deaths of her father and brothers, and was herself finally killed. But Mr. Mukhtar is worried that on election day, the rival camp will send gunmen to crowded polling booths in his strongholds. A few shots in the air would scatter the voters and send them running back home, and the women will not show up at all to cast their votes.

“This is why we need to show off some force,” said Mr. Mukhtar. Amidst several more rounds of gunfire, he and other speakers at the Jheeranwali rally exhort people to come out and cast their votes on Monday for Benazir. “We will not allow goondagardi at any cost. Remember that good always triumphs over evil. We have to remember that Benazir’s sacrificed her life for the country,” he tells the gathering.

With the PPP making gains in the last few weeks, the battle appears tough for the PML (Q) chief. But at Zahoor Palace, his family home in Gujrat town and the party’s nerve-centre, Mr. Hussain is confident of victory and dismissive of allegations that he has put the district administration and police to work for him. “Believe me, this is the easiest election of my life. I did not even bother to come here for my campaign until yesterday. I left it all to my party,” he said when The Hindu caught up with him last Saturday. “The PPP has a separate cell for manufacturing allegations, and they cook up stories all the time.”

His nazim brother is also in the room. “They allege that I’m influencing people to vote for my brother. How can I presume to do that? He is so senior to me, he does not need my help,” says Mr. Shafat Hussain, who has been accused by the PPP of issuing instructions to the police to bring down posters, flag, and billboards of its candidates. “It is a lie to say the police are under my control. They are under the control of the caretaker provincial government, they take their instructions only from the provincial government.”

The PML (Q) leader believes that as in the rest of Punjab, people are grateful for the development work undertaken in Gujrat in the last five years under him and his Chief Minister cousin. “No house is without gas or electricity,” he says, and fondly describes the new campus of Gujrat University as one of the best in Punjab.

He is confident that in the entire Punjab province, which is known to decide all elections in Pakistan, the PML (Q) will win as many as 90 out of 148 seats, “plus or minus five.” This is lower than the 118 it put together in 2002 but strong enough to place the party in a good position nationally.

Mr. Hussain is candid enough to admit that the PML (Q) will not get more than five or six seats in Sindh, but he is confident there is no pro-Benazir wave in Punjab. He does, however, concede that women are more likely to vote for the PPP, even in his constituency. “Women who have never voted before will come out to vote for the PPP this time,” he says.

With both sides armed, fears of violence, particularly in Gujrat on election day are high, but Chaudhary Shujat disagrees. “It is going to be the most peaceful election. I am asking the observers to come and see for themselves how free and fair it is going to be. I want as many observers as they can send,” he says.

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