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Will Zapatero return to power in Spain?

With campaigning for the March 9 general elections coming to an end on Friday, Spain is taking time to reflect on its political choices. The final polls show the outgoing Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero maintaining a razor-thin lead over his conservative rival, Mariano Rajoy of the Popular Party (PP).

As the campaign microphones fall silent, the Spanish mind is teeming with questions. Will he or won’t he keep his hold on power? Will young voters, hit particularly hard by the crumbling economy, steep inflation and rise in joblessness, turn out in numbers or stay at home? Political pundits predict that even if elected, Mr. Zapatero’s Socialist Party (PSOE) will not get an absolute majority. Given Spain’s complicated voting system, who then will be his new coalition partners and how will that affect his second term choices? Will the Spanish vote abroad significantly bolster or dash Mr. Zapatero’s hopes?

Of the 35 million Spaniards eligible to vote, 1.3 million live abroad and their vote could have a significant effect on the outcome of this poll. Mr. Zapatero, who took over as Prime Minister in 2004, ruled without an absolute majority in either House, securing support through ad hoc coalitions with leftists or regional parties.

During the last elections in 2004, the PSOE won 164 seats in the Congress. Its main rival, the PP, then led by Jose Maria Aznar, won 148. The main parties are: Convergencia y Union CiU, a very strong regional outfit from the rich Catalan region (10 seats); the United Left, dominated by the communists (5 seats); the Basque Nationalist Party the PNV (7 seats) and the Catalan Esquerra Republicana Party (8 seats). Several candidates from the National Basque Action Party (ANV), considered a front for the banned Batasuna party, political wing of the armed Basque separatist group ETA, were declared ineligible to stand for election.

Spain has a Lower House, the Congress and an Upper House, the Senate. All Congress members are elected by direct universal suffrage for four years. In the Senate, however, only 208 of its 264 members are elected directly. The remaining 56 are appointed by the autonomous regions.

Mr. Zapatero has cast himself as a determined moderniser, giving a distinctly social, even “feminist,” slant to his policies, relentlessly pushing an agenda that has moved Spain decisively to the Left. He has brought home Spanish troops from Iraq, liberalised divorce laws, legislated in favour of women, legalised same sex marriages and reduced the power of the Catholic Church. He has also dared to re-examine Spain’s past under the Franco dictatorship, a deeply divisive subject, considered taboo these past 25 years and, in doing so, he has polarised society. “Babyface” and “Bambi,” as he was nicknamed because of his telegenic looks and lambent eyes, has proved a tough politician with a vision for his country. But it is a vision that not everybody shares. So can he be beaten at these polls?

“The right-wing Popular Party was never able to digest its shock defeat in the 2004 elections. This campaign has been tough and extremely vituperative, playing out on four major issues: the economy, immigration, terrorism and territorial reform. This past year, the economy has slowed down. At four per cent, we continue to have a much higher growth rate than the rest of Europe but it is far from the 7 per cent we enjoyed over the last decade. Unemployment, especially amongst the young, is on the rise and the housing market has collapsed. With that happening, immigration has become a major issue. Zapatero made mistakes in his dealings with ETA, and he bungled the reforms that would give greater autonomy to the regions. The opposition has made the economy and immigration its major hitting planks. The abstention rate will be a key element in this election. The PP’s conservative supporters are extremely loyal and they will not cross the floor. The battle will be fought at the centre. If the centrists abstain, Zapatero will be in trouble. Spain today tilts slightly to the left and I feel he will win. But only just,” Sylvia Desazars de Montgaihard, author and Professor of Hispanic Studies at the Institute of Political Science in Paris, told The Hindu .

When Mr. Zapatero became the consensus candidate to lead the Socialist Party in 2004, no one expected him to win. Al Qaeda terrorist attacks in Madrid, which killed nearly 200 people and injured over 1,500 three days before the election and which the outgoing Aznar government deliberately and wrongly blamed on ETA, tossed the election into his lap. He was in a sense an “accidental” Prime Minister.

This time round, however, Mr. Zapatero will be judged by his performance. His achievements are by no means negligible. He has been able to accurately take the pulse of the people. Spain is no longer the arch conservative society inherited from the Franco dictatorship. Spaniards wish to move on and the Zapatero premiership has been marked by a change in mindset. In doing so, he has raised the hackles of the conservatives, especially the Catholic Church which has waded into the political arena calling upon voters not to support “an immoral government.” The same conservative forces, especially those nostalgic about the Franco era, criticise Mr. Zapatero for rehabilitating republicans; they also cannot stomach increased autonomy given to the regions, especially Catalonia, which was at the heart of the ill-fated attempt to establish a Spanish republic.

Mr. Zapatero’s Achilles heel could well be the economy and the fact that Spain suddenly seems to have turned its back on immigrants, 700,000 of whom he legalised. “But even the economic debate is a false one, because in terms of their economic programmes, Zapatero and Rajoy both propose a liberal, pro-market path. As far as immigration is concerned, Spain legalised clandestine workers by changing its legislation. Earlier, it was the clandestine worker who had to make the application and the law allowed only 60,000 work permits per year to illegal immigrants. Now it is the employer who makes the declaration and we discovered there were 7,00,000 people the economy was ready to absorb because these people were holding down jobs, paying taxes, etc. The economy has certainly slowed down and the tide has turned against immigrants. To accuse the Zapatero government of encouraging illegal immigration is unfair,” says Sylvia Desazaras de Montgailhard.

Spain is one of the few countries in Europe which has a healthy balance of trade surplus and Mr. Zapatero has promised to use this money to institute social reforms in favour of the poorest. Mr. Rajoy, who launched a spirited attack against his socialist rival in the first of two televised debates, failed to come up with concrete proposals to solve the looming economic problems.

For the moment, at least, the Socialist Party appears likely to win a slim second term. But even if Mr. Zapatero fails to win, it is unlikely that the conservatives will roll back the reforms he has introduced. Two-thirds of the Spanish population support same sex marriages and an overwhelming majority feels it is now time to debunk the past, untangle the Church from the state and move into the 21st century through greater devolution of powers and autonomy bordering on federalism. Mr. Zapatero himself argues that “Spain is a country that cannot be understood through old paradigms or governed by the traditional routine” and that future strength will emerge from a decentralised and flexible, not rigid and centralised, state.

Many in Spain today see the electoral battle as one for its “soul.” Five thousand Spanish artists, intellectuals and academicians have formed PAZ (Peace), a movement or platform in support of Mr. Zapatero. The singers among them have recorded a video clip, Defending Joy, in praise of the Socialist Party’s joyful character as opposed to the dour and uncharismatic PP embodied by the grim-faced Mr. Rajoy. Musician Raoul Ribera, who has signed up, says: “This is a fight for Spain’s soul. This battle is not about the economy. Both parties have more or less similar economic programmes although the PSOE is better inclined towards the poor, the jobless and the homeless; it has more heart. For me these elections are all about what Spain wants to be, how we see ourselves. Do we wish to return to the dictatorial and smothering embrace of the Catholic Church, re-embrace the conservative values of the Frankist state or do we wish to look at tomorrow and march towards it as a modern, secular, open, broad minded and tolerant people? Zapatero stands for that idea of openness and tolerance. These are the ideals I am trying to defend today.”

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