Opinion - News Analysis

A grim milestone in Iraq

President George Bush, poised to roll out the final battle plan of the war that will be his legacy, on Monday confronted the growing human cost to America of its engagement in Iraq as the U.S. death toll rose to 4,000.

The figure, acknowledged by the White House as a “sobre moment,” could refocus attention on the human cost of the conflict at a time when Americans had been distracted by concerns about the economy and the early stages of next November 217;s presidential contest.

Officials indicated on Monday that Mr. Bush is expected to order a pause in troop withdrawals from Iraq, maintaining the U.S. military presence in Iraq at 140,000 troops at least until next autumn.

The news came on a day when the U.S. reached the tragic new threshold of violence in the war.

The U.S. military announced that four soldiers were killed when a bomb hit their vehicle in Baghdad on Sunday night. Their deaths, which came on a day when more than 60 Iraqis were also killed and dozens injured in attacks in and around Baghdad.

The White House press secretary, Dana Perino, told reporters that the losses were weighing on Bush.

“President Bush believes that every life is precious, and he spends time every day thinking about those who’ve lost their lives on the battlefield,” she said.

“The president has said the hardest thing a commander-in-chief will do is send young men and women into combat, and he’s grieved for every lost American life, from the very first several years ago to those lost today.”

The Democratic contenders for the White House also acknowledged the new threshold. Ms. Clinton repeated a pledge to bring a “responsible end” to the war in Iraq if she becomes president.

Mr. Obama, in his statement, said: “It is past time to end this war that should never have been waged by bringing our troops home, and finally pushing Iraq’s leaders to take responsibility for their future.”

However, White House officials have been saying recently that Mr. Bush was leaning towards suspending troop withdrawals at least until September.

The decision all but ensures that the next occupant of the White House — whether Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or John McCain — will inherit a scenario in Iraq requiring a commitment of approximately 140,000 forces with no exit plan in sight.

The process towards that decision begins on April 8 and 9 when General David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, U.S. Ambassador to Baghdad, are to report to Congress on the progress of the war.

Their appearance could reignite a sense of political urgency among Democrats in Congress to ending the war after several months of relative quiet.

Bush on Monday took part in a two-hour secure video conference on the war with Gen. Petraeus and Mr. Crocker. He is expected to hear recommendations from the Pentagon on whether to maintain the current high troop levels in Iraq.

The White House ordered what was described as a temporary “surge” in U.S. troops in Iraq early last year, sending 28,500 additional troops into the war zone. There are currently some 158,000 troops in Iraq.

The change in strategy, which saw a peak of 170,000 forces in Iraq in the summer of last year, did reduce the violence.

U.S. commanders said that by the autumn of 2007 the number of daily attacks fell by 60 per cent.

However, the surge also led to the deadliest year for U.S. troops since the invasion. Some 901 troops were killed in 2007 as the U.S. commanders redrew their strategy for Iraq, maintaining a continuous presence on the ground in Iraqi neighbourhoods and entering into alliances with Sunni tribal chieftains.

For Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama, the decision to maintain current force levels complicates their campaign promises to begin withdrawing combat forces from Iraq within the first months of a presidency, leaving only a rump force to combat Al Qaeda.

It could also strengthen the hand of Mr. McCain, who has positioned himself as one of the earliest and most forceful advocates of the current surge strategy.

On the eve of the invasion, Mr. McCain repeatedly warned that Saddam posed a threat to the U.S. telling Congress in October 2002: “He has developed stocks of germs and toxins in sufficient quantities to kill the entire population of the Earth multiple times.”

In this election season, however, he has recast himself as a critic of the war.

That sense of relative equanimity about the progress of the war comes at a time when the conflict is fading from public awareness. A study earlier this month by the Pew Research Centre for People and the Press found that public awareness of U.S. military deaths in Iraq has declined since last August. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

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