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Third meeting of NSG not ruled out

Vienna: The belief of diplomats from the states opposed to the text of the new India draft waiver at the Nuclear Suppliers Group is that the September 4-5 meeting will also prove inconclusive and that India will have to make further compromises if it hopes to win approval for the proposed exemption.

The ‘leaking’ of the U.S. State Department letter containing a strong elaboration of the Bush administration’s approach to nuclear cooperation with India also queered the pitch. “I think it is fair to say we will be quoting from bits of the letter,” one diplomat told The Hindu before the meeting. “When Washington is clear about its own benchmarks for [nuclear] trade with India, why should the NSG be asked to settle for something less?” said a diplomat from another country.

On the other hand, diplomats from countries broadly supportive of India’s position say they will press for adoption of the waiver the way it stands.

“But the main battle has to be waged by your principal partner, the U.S.,” a diplomat from a former Soviet Bloc state said. He added that the principle of consensus meant even one country with objections could hold up the process.

Asked whether the leaked State Department letter — with its unambiguous language on the termination of both nuclear cooperation and all fuel supply assurances in the event of an Indian nuclear test — might serve to allay fears in the NSG that Washington was being too “soft” on India, one diplomat said the letter was indeed reassuring. “I think the assurances contained in the State Department’s response are very positive,” he said. “But our concern is that they apply only to the United States. What we would like is for Russia and France to be also held to the same assurances and understandings.”

The bottom line for that diplomat’s country, and others with which it is consulting, he said, is that “we have to tie [the exemption] to the moratorium — that’s the minimum.” “If that’s not there, I can’t see us making headway,” said another diplomat.

The new draft adds more explicit language on consultations, including a reference to “acting in accordance with Paragraph 16 of the NSG guidelines” if one or more members “consider that circumstances have arisen which require consultations.”

But critics within the NSG are not satisfied. “Proposing more consultations is not enough. Because of the requirement of consensus, there is every likelihood of lack of action in the event of [a test by India] happening,” said one diplomat. “So we feel the waiver should clarify that there will be disincentives for India to testing … The consequences should be clear and upfront.”

The critics are also not very pleased with the ‘compromise’ formula in which their concerns will be reflected in a chairman’s statement. “There was a version of a chairman’s statement that was circulating when it was pulled at the request of the Government of India,” one diplomat said. “But from our point of view, this is not a runner. We want an unambiguous, clear waiver in one text.”

These countries feel the State Department disclosure has strengthened their hands, even though its full import was still being digested. “I think there is room for improvement on both sides. There is scope for compromise, also by India,” one official said.

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