Date:14/10/2008 URL: http://www.thehindu.com/2008/10/14/stories/2008101453570400.htm

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Northeast monsoon likely in two days

T. Ramakrishnan

State experienced widespread rainfall in the last 24 hours

CHENNAI: The northeast monsoon is likely to set in within a couple of days, according to Y.E.A. Raj, Director of the Meteorological department.

During the 24-hour-period that ended at 8-30 a.m. on Monday, the State experienced widespread rainfall, with 85 per cent of around 250 rainfall stations in the State recording rain.

As regards the period between Saturday and Sunday, the situation was fairly widespread – 68 per cent of the stations registered rainfall.

Dr. Raj, who has carried out a number of studies on the pattern of rainfall during the northeast monsoon, said the advent of low-level easterlies took place on Thursday. “Considering various factors, the conditions are favourable for the onset of the monsoon in a few days,” he said, adding that on an average, the State recorded 43 cm during the monsoon (October-December).

As recorded on Monday morning, Tiruchendur, Ramanathapuram and Parangipettai (in Cuddalore district) recorded 8 cm each and Tambaram received 7 cm. Karaikal and Vilathikulam (in Tuticorin district) recorded 6 cm each. Chennai, Red Hills, Nagapattinam, Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli) and Sholavandan (Madurai) registered 5 cm each while Meenambakkam, Kattumannarkoil, Tiruvarur, Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram) and Srivaikundam (Tuticorin) were among the areas that received 4 cm each.

The official, who refused to hazard a guess on this year’s monsoon, said an analysis of 100 years (1901-2000) of rainfall during the northeast monsoon revealed that the State recorded normal rainfall in 55 per cent of the years; excess rainfall in 21 per cent and deficient rainfall in 24 per cent of the years.

[According to meteorological standards, if the deviation of rainfall from normal is in the range of minus 20 per cent-minus 59 per cent, it is deficient. But if the departure is in the range of minus 19 per cent-plus 19 per cent, it is normal and above plus 20 per cent, excess].

In the last 10 years (since 1998), the State witnessed excess rainfall only in two years – 2005 (61 per cent) and 2007 (21 per cent); deficient rainfall in 2000 and 2003 (minus 23 per cent on both occasions) and normal rainfall in six years – 1998 (12 per cent), 1999 (minus six per cent), 2001 (minus 15 per cent), 2002 (minus 12 per cent), 2004 (3 per cent) and 2006 (15 per cent).

The earliest onset of the monsoon took place on October 5, 1943 and the most delayed onset was on November 11, 1945, Dr. Raj said.