Opinion - Editorials

A famous victory

Barack Obama’s runaway victory in the 2008 presidential election begins a new political era in the United States. In their historic act of sending an African-American to the White House — with an emphatic six percentage point popular vote advantage and no less than 364 electoral college votes to his white opponent’s 174 — American voters showed that they had, for the most part, put the shameful legacy of racism behind them. But the historic verdict of November 4 went far beyond race. It was simultaneously a rejection of the George W. Bush legacy — marked by two disastrous wars and a financial crisis — and an embrace of a positive message of change. Mr. Obama’s political genius lay in discovering and navigating a highly improbable path to the presidency. This he did by seizing the rarest of rare opportunities; hitting the right political note at the right time; conjuring up a credible multi-racial coalition from the grass roots; and building the most resourceful, disciplined, and Internet-enabled campaign organisation seen anywhere in recent times. A new generation of enthusiastic voters thirsting for socio-political change powered the Democratic candidate to his famous victory. They even enabled Mr. Obama to overcome the decades-long divide between Blue and Red States. He held on to all the territory won by his party in the 2000 and 2004 cycles, decisively took swing States, and flipped six from the Republican to the Democratic columns. With countrywide support of this order, the President-elect has the mandate to implement his campaign promise of a fundamental transformation of U.S. domestic and foreign policies.

True, Mr. Obama got lucky. Public opinion polls showed that the Republican and Democratic parties were roughly on a par until the point in mid-September 2008 when crisis struck the financial markets. From then on, the campaign story was largely about the economy although the candidates differentiate themselves on other issues, notably the Iraq war. John McCain tried desperately to cut his links with President George Bush but could not prevent the incumbent’s 70-plus per cent job disapproval rating from pulling him down. The Republican candidate hoped that the success of the ‘surge’ in Iraq (a course he advocated) would convince voters about his superior qualifications to handle national security. But a majority of Americans refused to change their opinion that the withdrawal proposed by Mr. Obama was the correct option. Many of them seem to have finally decided that after eight years of arrogant belligerence, which made a mockery of international law and simultaneously endangered the lives of American soldiers, it was time to project a more sensitive image of their country. The circumstances were highly congenial but it still took Mr. Obama’s political genius to pull the various elements together.

Team Obama ran a master-class in the political use of the internet and other forms of new media. Aside from ensuring that a good part of Mr. Obama’s $600-million-plus war chest came from small donors, the strategy enabled his campaign to identify volunteers through the length and breadth of the country. As a result, the Democrats outgunned the Republicans in hotly contested districts. The volunteer army also played a huge role in voter registration and door-to-door stumping, and in turning out the vote. The difference the voter registration drive made in this election cannot be underestimated, with the bulk of minority voters and new voters identifying themselves as pro-Democrat. Not content with this, the Obama team adopted and fine-tuned the Republican-innovated technique of micro-targeting. This enabled outreach to suburbs and rural pockets not traditionally considered Democratic territory. Even where the party failed to win these non-urban counties, it was able to build up its popular vote tally in one non-Blue State after another.

Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean may have been the instigator of the 50-State strategy but a less imaginative candidate than Mr. Obama would have lacked the boldness to implement it. This was an astute move since demographic changes over the years had put new territories into play. For instance, the migration of professionals into the Virginia counties adjacent to Washington, D.C. has changed the overall voter profile of a State that was once the centre-piece of the old Confederacy. Similarly, the increase in Hispanic populations in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado has helped loosen the Republican grip on the West. The Obama wave has helped his party make substantial gains in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In theory, this could make for a monolithic Obama presidency though analysts caution that a person who has not completed even one term in the Senate will have quite a job keeping potentially factious Congressional party colleagues in order.

Finally, it must not be overlooked that the incoming President has presented only broad-brush strokes of the policies he will follow in key areas, including the current financial markets crisis. The excuse for this perhaps was that in a fluid situation, Mr. Obama had to play safe and any major misstep would be politically fateful. Appointments to the key cabinet posts and the White House staff will be watched with keen interest. For now at least, the international community, which overwhelmingly voted Mr. Obama U.S. President much before the American people did, will be mightily relieved. The President-elect is, like his predecessors, a believer in American exceptionalism. However, the hope is that his unique personal history will make him understand better than his predecessors that other countries too have their special character.

© Copyright 2000 - 2009 The Hindu