Opinion - News Analysis

Maharashtra: a state of crisis

The Congress in Maharashtra is reeling under the impact of the terror attacks in Mumbai in more ways than one. Immediately after Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh tendered his resignation and a Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting was convened, the former Shiv Sainik and Revenue Minister in the earlier Cabinet, Narayan Rane, raised a fresh banner of revolt.

Upset at not being nominated Chief Minister, Mr. Rane indulged in the worst form of mud slinging on the party that took him into its fold after his exit from the Sena. Mr. Rane, who has threatened to topple the new government, may not have the numbers to do so. However, he is a powerful politician in the State and has already aired his views against Mr. Deshmukh more than once. He has repeatedly sought central intervention and staked claim to head the State. His outburst — for which the Congress has suspended him — will definitely damage the party’s standing as his clout in the coastal Konkan region cannot be underestimated.

If Mr. Rane leaves the Congress, the party’s base in the Konkan will be considerably eroded, much to the advantage of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the coalition partner in the government. Since a while, the NCP has been making inroads into the Konkan and this could be the moment it has been waiting for.

By choosing Ashok Chavan as the new chief minister, the Congress has ostensibly taken the advice of loyalists. The choice also reflects the leadership crisis in the party. Mr. Chavan has been in the opposition camp all along and is not exactly Mr. Deshmukh’s confidante. The desire to keep out Mr. Rane at any cost has led to the changed circumstances and the Congress seems to have had enough of his petulance. While hitting out at the Congress on Friday, Mr. Rane thanked NCP president and Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar. Mr. Pawar had backed Mr. Rane’s candidature for the Chief Minister, knowing in some ways that it would never happen. The departure of Mr. Rane and his supporters will diminish the party in many ways. That gives the NCP the chance to bargain for an equal share in the number of Lok Sabha seats (total 48), a claim it has already made. The NCP has also taken a tough stand on the Malegaon terror investigation and Mr. Pawar made a speech in Muslim–dominated Govandi to kick off the NCP’s election campaign, which had a strong appeal to the community.

It has supported the investigation into the Malegaon blast in which a Lt. Colonel and a sadhvi are the accused. Mr. Pawar, even before the investigation began, has been saying that no community can be tarnished as “terrorist,” and terrorism has no religion.

The NCP’s strategic move in resurrecting Chhagan Bhujbal as Deputy Chief Minister is an indication that it intends to use Mr. Bhujbal’s commanding base among the other backward classes (OBCs) to gain an electoral advantage. At the same time it is sitting on the fence on the issue of OBC reservation for the Marathas, something Mr. Bhujbal cannot be happy with. This contradiction has to be sorted out within the party which is clearly aiming for a combination of Muslim, Maratha, Scheduled Caste, and OBC votes.

Mr. Chavan has the unenviable task of regrouping the Congress in the State and assuring the people of the party’s predominance. A difficult task, considering the widespread criticism against the government’s inability to prevent the latest terror attacks, and the prevailing atmosphere of fear and insecurity. Mr. Chavan will also have to deal with the strident demand for reservations for Marathas as OBCs, a move spearheaded by some groups which are affiliated to the NCP. In addition he will have to address the state’s perennial woes regarding power and the irrigation backlog, apart from the grave agrarian crisis which is threatening to get worse. The Prime Minster’s package for the six suicide-prone districts and the state’s own schemes have done little to assuage the vulnerable farming community in Vidarbha.

Despite his impeccable political pedigree, Mr. Chavan who hails from Nanded in the Marathwada region, has very little clout elsewhere in the State. His task is further complicated by the fact that he takes over Maharashtra just a year before the Assembly elections and a few months before the Lok Sabha elections. It will be a tall order for him to ensure that the Congress gains in strength enough to give a fair fight in the polls with the NCP breathing down his neck and the Opposition reciting all the failures of the erstwhile government.

The Congress also has to gain lost ground with the Muslims and Scheduled Castes. It has been repeatedly said that Maharashtra has the highest number of communal riots, three of which have happened this year, of which Dhule was the worst. The past record of the Congress in dealing with communal riots is abysmal. The special courts set up to expedite the riot cases of 1992-93 were a failure and only a few serious cases were disposed of. Even in the Khairlanji killings which rocked the country, the investigation did not succeed in pinning the accused under the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act which is a severe blow to social justice. And the demand for reservation for Marathas under the OBC category could be the last straw.

The Congress not only faces a crisis of leadership but also lacks a strategy to ensure that it comes out trumps in the elections ahead. Mr. Rane’s rebellion has come at a highly inopportune moment and in many ways it reflects the disarray in the party, which needs to get its act together soon. That is the challenge before Ashok Chavan and the question is whether he alone can take on this task with adequate political will and a sense of purpose.

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